Friday, January 02, 2026

Baird v. Bonta (9th Cir. - Jan. 2, 206)

I'll begin the new year with a prediction:

This opinion will be taken en banc.

The majority opinion strikes down California's open-carry licensing scheme for firearms. That regime allows individuals to carry concealed weapons, but doesn't allow individuals to publicly carry firearms in urban counties (i.e., counties with populations over 200,000). Judges VanDyke and Lee -- a dream panel for plaintiffs in a firearms case -- hold that these provisions violate the Second Amendment.

Judge Randy Smith dissents. 

It tells you something, I think, when even a Republican appointee from Idaho doesn't agree with the conservative Second Amendment view adopted by his colleagues.

I'm not saying that the en banc court will necessarily reverse. There are many en banc panel draws that might end up agreeing with today's panel opinion. (Though I suspect that most of them would, in fact, go the other way.)

But I would put a lot of money on the case getting a majority vote for en banc review.